A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
